Back high-conviction market forecasts with built-in downside recovery.
BestPicks turns analyst conviction into a verified intelligence layer: structured asset forecasts, transparent settlement, and hedged participation for disciplined crypto-native capital.
50-60%
eligible recovery
Oracle
verified settlement
0
self-reported outcomes
Verified analystForecast closes in
BTC/USDT Upside Forecast
Entry 68,420 · Target 71,900 · Invalidation 66,850
07:18:00
LIVE TIMER
64%
Accuracy
89
Settled
60%
Recovery
00Intelligence thesis
From isolated market opinions to collective intelligence.
Problem
The old model creates blind trust
Unverified market opinions rely on reputation theater, opaque incentives, and self-reported performance. Participants get exposure without an accountable settlement layer.
Solution
BestPicks makes conviction measurable
Analysts publish defined forecasts into a measurable intelligence layer. Backers evaluate transparent history, and outcomes resolve against market data with Umbra Credits reducing the drag of out-of-favor forecasts.
01Settlement circuit
A clean DeFi lens for market participation.
01
Review structured forecasts
Compare analyst history, asset, direction, entry range, target, invalidation, time horizon, and conviction before backing a forecast.
02
Oracle-verified settlement
At expiry, the engine resolves outcomes with independent market data rather than manual claims or social proof.
03
Recovery is automatic
Favorable outcomes reward analysts. Out-of-favor outcomes can activate Umbra Credits. Voided outcomes return eligible participation cost.
02Forecast exchange
Browse analysts by verified outcomes, not audience size.
AR
64% accuracyAlpha Ridge
89 oracle-settled forecasts
Active forecast preview
BTC/USDT · Upside bias · 24h horizon · Umbra eligible
DF
61% accuracyDelta Flow
122 oracle-settled forecasts
Active forecast preview
ETH/USDT · Downside bias · 12h horizon · invalidation defined
AD
58% accuracyAmber Desk
76 oracle-settled forecasts
Active forecast preview
SOL/USDT · Upside bias · 36h horizon · recovery layer active
03Umbra recovery layer
Loss-recovery capital for when conviction breaks.
Hedged recovery
Markets are uncertain. The participation layer should preserve optionality.
Umbra Credits are protocol-native loss-recovery credits, not coupons. When an eligible forecast resolves out-of-favor, part of the participation cost returns as a recovery balance that can be redeployed into future verified opportunities.
Recover 50-60% of eligible forecast cost as Umbra Credits
Redeploy recovery balance into future verified forecasts
Preserve allocation discipline instead of all-or-nothing exposure
04Expansion map
From verified forecasts to autonomous market intelligence.
Phase 1
Oracle-Verified Predictions & Hedged Settlement
Launch curated analyst forecasts with UMA-style oracle verification, transparent resolution, and eligible 50-60% Umbra Credit recovery when forecasts resolve out-of-favor.
Phase 2
Hyperliquid Vault Integration
Move from forecast access to transparent execution. Backers allocate into tokenized analyst vaults and mirror perp positions on Hyperliquid through CoreWriter and precompile integrations.
Phase 3
Structured Prediction Markets
Expand into crypto-native event markets including ETF flows, gas spikes, network upgrades, liquidity rotations, and macro catalysts, with analysts acting as market makers or underwriters.
Phase 4
Autonomous Intelligence & Staking
Onboard AI agent analysts, launch a native token or points economy, and let participants stake to back, challenge, or validate machine-driven consensus for yield-bearing rewards.
05Participation rails
Built for backers and analysts.
For backers
Access curated forecasts, review transparent performance, and participate with a built-in recovery mechanism.
For analysts
Publish structured forecasts, build an oracle-verified record, and monetize accountable market conviction.
For the protocol
Transform market expertise into a measurable intelligence layer that can expand into vaults, event markets, and AI agents.
06Operator notes